Work package 4

Synthesis

In WP4, we will combine the new findings about CDR forcing footprints, and the Earth systems response to net-zero CO2 (multi-gas forcing) scenarios, to identify potential temperature stabilisation scenarios. We will then perform an Earth system uncertainty assessment based on the most relevant processes identified under zero CO2 emission scenarios in WP2.

Finally, statistical uncertainty analyses will allow us to provide fractions of variability in temperature stabilisation scenarios. 

The time dependent fractions of variability, resolved down to single Earth system processes, will allow us to point to the most relevant processes in temperature stabilisation scenarios in the near term, but also by the end of the century. 

Improving the observational constraints for those processes would increase our confidence in projecting the future temperature response once we have minimised our influence on the climate system. 

In addition, I will also be able to estimate the most likely future CO2 emission scenarios, that would lead to temperature stabilisation.